(電子商務(wù)研究中心訊) 在促銷(xiāo)的3P平臺(tái)之美
阿里巴巴發(fā)表了強(qiáng)勁的季度收入rmb50.2b(同比增長(zhǎng)56%)，2% / 5%在DBE /街。對(duì)rmb43b核心商務(wù)啟頂DBE 4%提高內(nèi)容和個(gè)性化。天貓實(shí)物GMV grew49同比%(VS行業(yè)在31%元國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局)。非GAAP EBITDA利潤(rùn)率為of50.1 5.3ppts/5.7ppts高于DBE /街。核心商務(wù)的ebitamargin進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)到63%；這在胺積極補(bǔ)貼月促銷(xiāo)。巴巴重申其全年?duì)I收指導(dǎo)49同比%，預(yù)覽2h較高的投資，提高fy18rev增長(zhǎng)49%的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭，我們重申買(mǎi)入。
在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)服務(wù)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)；投資加強(qiáng)2hfy18
傭金收入為核心商務(wù)的貢獻(xiàn)下降到24%(vs 32%可是Q)作為公司扣除回扣傭金的商家在促銷(xiāo)活動(dòng)時(shí)間六月。商家可以將theserebates回到“客戶管理”花(網(wǎng)絡(luò)營(yíng)銷(xiāo))，從而alsoaiding收入加速到65%(vs 45%上Q)。我們預(yù)計(jì)robustcustomer管理收入勢(shì)頭繼續(xù)在九月問(wèn)butnormalize 2h研磨算法改變?nèi)ツ?。我們預(yù)計(jì)總投資預(yù)算為fy18 rmb5-6b，表明較高的投資規(guī)模2hfy18。投資將集中在B2C市場(chǎng)份額的擴(kuò)大(競(jìng)爭(zhēng)意義指出，云視頻內(nèi)容…)。
3.5%美元208美元提升TP；維持買(mǎi)入
我們?cè)黾觙y18 / 19 / 1% / 1% / 1% 20revenue和7% / 6% / 6%非GAAP凈收入增加。我們舉起的EBITDA利潤(rùn)率由150bps / 180bps / 100bps.our TP是基于一個(gè)不變的停止：1)33x cy18e P / E的電子商務(wù)；2)8x cy18e EV /銷(xiāo)售阿里巴巴云；3)29x cy18e EV/EBITDA為ant'spayment和WM業(yè)務(wù)，和5.5 cy18e P／BV的貸款和保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)；4)對(duì)新菜鳥(niǎo)資本籌集價(jià)值；5)凈現(xiàn)金excludingalibaba云。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：收入和用戶增長(zhǎng)放緩；intensifyingcompetition；不能擴(kuò)大或賺錢(qián)的阿里巴巴云業(yè)務(wù)。Seepp。4 - 5。
原文：
The beauty of a 3P platform during promotions
Alibaba delivered a strong quarter with revenue of RMB50.2b (+56% YoY),2%/5% ahead of DBe/street. Core-commerce rev of RMB43b topped DBe by4% on improving content and personalization. Tmall physical goods GMV grew49% YoY (vs the industry at 31% per NBS). Non-GAAP EBITDA margin of50.1% was 5.3ppts/5.7ppts higher than DBe/street. Core-commerce adj EBITAmargin grew further to 63%; this amidst amids the aggressive subsidies ofJune promotions. BABA reiterated its full year revenue guidance of 45-49%YoY, previewing higher investment in 2H. In raising FY18rev growth to 49% tocapture strong momentum, we reiterate Buy.
Robust growth in marketing services; investment to step up in 2HFY18
Commission revenue contribution to core-commerce dipped to 24% (vs 32% inDec Q) as the company deducted rebates from their commission schedule tomerchants during the June promotional event. Merchants could reinvest theserebates back into”customer management”spend (online marketing), thus alsoaiding in revenue acceleration to 65% (vs 45% last Q). We expect robustcustomer management revenue momentum to continue in the Sep Q butnormalize in 2H in lapping the algorithm change last year. We expect a totalinvestment budget of RMB5-6b for FY18, indicating a higher investment scalein 2HFY18. Investment will focus on market share expansion for B2C(competitive implications noted…), cloud and video content.
Lifting TP by 3.5% to US$208; Maintain Buy
We increase FY18/19/20revenue by 1%/1%/1% and increase non-GAAP netincome by 7%/6%/6%. We lift adj EBITDA margin by 150bps/180bps/100bps.Our TP is based on an unchanged SOTP: 1) 33x CY18E P/E for e-commerce; 2)8x CY18E EV/Sales for Alibaba Cloud; 3) 29x CY18E EV/EBITDA for Ant’spayment and WM business, and 5.5x CY18E P/BV for the loan and insurancebusiness; 4) Cainiao valn on latest capital raise; and 5) Net cash excludingAlibaba Cloud. Risks: slower revenue and user growth; intensifyingcompetition; and inability to expand or monetize Alibaba Cloud business. Seepp. 4–5.（來(lái)源：德意志銀行；文/Alan Hellawell；編選：中國(guó)電子商務(wù)研究中心）
